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|a Meteorology |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b SUNY Oswego, |c 2022. |
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|a Presenter: Scott Steiger. Title: Insights from a National Weather Service Climate Observer. Abstract: |
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|a Presenter: Matthew Lynne. Title: An Analysis of the Weather Prediction Center’s Winter Storm Outlook in Low Probability Scenarios. Abstract: The Weather Prediction Center’s (WPC) Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), was developed in conjunction
with National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) to help coordinate more
consistent issuance and messaging of Winter Storm Watches. The WSO uses the WPC Probabilistic
Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF) guidance to output daily probabilistic guidance for winter storm
snowfall and freezing rain criteria being met during a four day period throughout the lower 48. While
this product has undergone testing for several winter seasons, this study will only focus on the period
from October 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021.
While the previous work regarding the WSO has shown that this product has the potential to be quite
helpful for the various WFOs, there were instances throughout the period of study where storms were
shown to have little to no probability of occurring on the WSO guidance. Many questions were raised
as to why this occurred and whether there were any patterns that could be distinguished among these
events. In general, it was found that due to the combination of high winds and low snowfall, blizzards
tended to not show up well on the guidance as well as storms that tended to have greater overall
uncertainty in the short and medium range. It will be important to take note of these types of events as
the WSO moves towards operational implementation while highlighting areas where local expertise at
the various WFOs can supplement the WSO guidance. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c SUNY Oswego Institutional Repository, |d 2022. |f (Oswego Digital Library) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Atmospheric and Geological Sciences. |
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|a Oswego Digital Library. |
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|u https://digitallibrary.oswego.edu/AA00000366/00001 |y Electronic Resource |